Released by PML (N) Central Information Secretary Muhammed Siddique-ul-Farooque At a press conference in Islamabad on January 16, 2005

The Construction of Baglihar Dam on the Chenab by India is not a trivial matter. On one hand, it has seriously endangered Pakistan's agrarian economy, and on the other hand it has fully exposed India's back tracking on accords and animosity towards Pakistan. Moreover, it is now evident that the country is not safe in the hands of General Pervez Musharraf, because he has silently helped India in the dam's construction similarly as he helped it in building the fence on Line of Control.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had taken a strong and decisive position on the issue of Wullar Barrage so that India was unable to continue its construction, and later the Mujahideen blasted it with dynamite. Also, India could not dare start construction of the Baglihar Dam because an elected civilian ruler was in power in Pakistan. However, General Pervez Musharraf secretly opened gates of cooperation with India after he usurped power unconstitutionally in 1999. In fact, the history of national catastrophes, right from the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 to the construction of Baglihar Dam in 2005, provides irrefutable evidence of the incompetence, lack of vision and compromising national interests by military dictators as compared to patriotism and vigilance of elected leaders.

This fact sheet is designed to recall these events in the context of Baglihar Dam.

Ayub Khan's lack of foresight
Quaid-e-Azam had described Kashmir as jugular vein of Pakistan due to fact that our agrarian economy totally depended on waters of the rivers that flowed from the hills of Kashmir. India, however, had set its agenda from day one to deprive Pakistan of these waters. The first military dictator of Pakistan was unable to understand the Indian intentions. Therefore, while the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 recognized Pakistan's exclusive right to waters of the rivers Chenab, Jehlum and Sindh, Field Marshal Ayub Khan ignorantly accepted inclusion of the proviso allowing India to build hydroelectric plants on these rivers. In other words, the military dictator provided India with the chance to promote its anti-Pakistan Agenda. Although the Treaty stipulates that Indian dams should not affect unhindered flow of waters to Pakistan, the procedure for arbitration on Pakistan's complaints in this respect is so lengthy and complex that stoppage of construction on an objectionable Indian dam in time became almost impossible.

Courageous stance of democratic regimes
The democratic governments that came to power after Ayub Khan were fully aware of Indian designs about Pakistan. Therefore, when India planned to build Salal Dam on the Chenab in 1974, Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto forced it to change the design. India got the message that no democratic government in Pakistan would let it pursue its agenda. However, it found the dictatorial regime of General Zia ul Haq very conducive for its objectives, and made preparations to construct Wullar Barrage at the Jehlum River in 1984.

Nawaz Sharif's stern warnings
The construction of Wullar Barrage was still in initial stages when the Zia era came to an end. India tried to take advantage of Indus Waters Treaty loopholes and entangle the following democratic administration in meaningless negotiations, while work on Wullar Barrage continued. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif realized the futility of negotiations after fruitless round of talks in November 1998. He, therefore, took a strong position, and sternly warned the Indian leadership of direct action if the construction of the barrage was not stopped. The warning proved useful. India then started on blue prints of the Baglihar Dam, but again faced very strong protest from Islamabad with the result that it did not dare to start construction until Nawaz Sharif was in power.

Criminal incompetence of Musharraf regime
The seven-point agenda that General Pervez Musharraf announced after toppling the constitutional democratic government on October 12, 1999 did not mention protection of Pakistan's water sources, though Baglihar was a live issue at that time. The annual meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission, held on May 31, 2000, conveniently deferred Pakistan's objections to the next meeting. However, the Musharraf government agreed to pay $1.8 million to India for flood situation reports that India had previously been providing free.

Next year, when General Pervez Musharraf was to visit India in July 2001, official sources briefed the media that Baglihar Dam was also to be discussed with the Indian Prime Minister. However, the General did not utter a single word on the issue in Agra. He continued to harp on his theme of changing the "mindset"; in fact changed his own mindset with regard to disputes with India. Thus he encouraged India to start construction of the Baglihar Dam. The Indians also cancelled the inspection of the Baglihar site by Pakistani engineers, which was agreed earlier to be held on December 24, 2001, and Musharraf did not bother to protest this Indian move. Further, encouraged, India launched round the clock work with the result that result that the dam is ready to be commissioned this year instead of the originally fixed date of 2007.

A national daily revealed on February 17, 2002 that the Indian member of Permanent Indus Commission had cut all contacts with his Pakistani counterpart. That stirred the Foreign Office, and its spokesman timidly disclosed on February 27 that we written to India requesting details of doors being constructed at Dam. Two months later the FO admitted that three letters on the subject to India remained unanswered, and that Pakistan was thinking of going to the Court of Arbitration under Article IX of the Indus Waters Treaty.

That thinking has not yet come to any conclusion while India has almost completed the Baglihar Dam, higher than even Tarbela at 470 feet, with a reservoir of 160,00 acre-feet of water ensuring enhanced benefits for its agricultural sector and prosperity of its people.

Pakistan's losses
Pakistan can be deprived of 8,000 cusec of water due to storage at Baglihar, and, since Pakistani farmers require more water in the sowing season, the scarcity can affect 2.5 lac acres of farmland. Pakistan reaps two tons per acre of food grains with two annual crops on canal-irrigated lands, but the country will lose about15 million tons of food grains and 7.5 million tons of fodder every year due to lack of water; translated into money, the loss will amount to about 8 billion rupees, and we will need 150 million US dollars every year to import food grains.

Baglihar Dam can lead to drying of the BRB canal that would seriously imperil Pakistan's defense system.

India can also spread floods in Pakistan any time it wishes after the Baglihar Dam is commissioned.

Hoodwinking the people
The Musharraf Government has declared at least six times in past two years that it will take its complaints to the World Bank, but no concrete step has yet been taken in that direction. However, with total disregard of national interests, the so-called process of confidence building has been going on all this while enthusiastically with unilateral ceasefire on the Line of Control allowing India to complete the infamous fence; doors for trade have been opened wide; the so-called peace missions from India have given all facilities to preach benefits of re-uniting with India! Adherence to UN resolutions on Kashmir has been renounced and Kashmiri freedom fighters have been declared terrorists.

Pakistan's weak stance has finally emboldened India to declare at the end of January 4 talks in New Delhi that Baglihar Dam does not violate the Indus Waters Treaty, and that Pakistani objections are rejected. The Musharraf regime, realizing that its double dealing has been exposed, has launched a propaganda campaign to mislead the people with the claim that it is opposed to building of Baglihar Dam, will foil its construction at any cost and will take the matter to the World Bank. It is mere posturing.

Status of World Bank
The World Bank can play only a limited role under the Indus Waters Treaty. It has not power to implement its decisions. India has already refused to implement UN resolutions on Kashmir; it would also reject World Bank ruling if it goes against New Delhi. Pervez Musharraf might stage the show of invoking the World Bank, but the Dam would have been commissioned meanwhile due to his collusion with India. In other words, Musharraf's tacit assurances of cooperation with India would have taken effect leading to drought for Pakistan and greenery for India.

PML (N) Position
Pakistan Muslim League (N) never opposed improving relations with India, but is vehemently against an improvement at the cost of National interests. The PML (N), therefore, presents its case to the people's court against General Pervez Musharraf for selling of Pakistan's vital interests and serving foreign interests.

In view of hard facts spread over the Past five years and three months, PML (N) believes that Pakistan is totally unsafe in the hands of General Musharraf. He is either unconscious of the hardships and genuine interests of the people, or is galloping on the course of multiplying people's difficulties and compromising national interests under an understanding with the enemies.

It is the considered opinion of PML (N) that General Musharraf continues to inflict irreparable damage not only on Pakistan but also on the institution of Armed Forces. National interests demand immediate removal of General Pervez Musharraf.

The individuals and institutions cooperating with General Musharraf in pursuing his agenda should revise their attitude without delay; otherwise the people would consider them abetting the crimes of General Musharraf.

The PML (N) appeals to the people and all institutions, patriotic and pro-constitution political and religious parties to unite for the mission of protecting national interests and removing General Musharraf from power.